It’s been hard to avoid the story of a company called GameStop (ticker symbol ‘GME’) this week. GameStop is a small video game and video game electronics company, and they’ve made headlines this week as some large hedge funds are—as of now, anyway—losing a very public and very expensive battle with retail investors. At least, that’s the story. We are…
Dear Clients & Friends: 2018 has been a year to forget, in many ways. And yet… Unemployment is at a ~50-year low, the economy continues to chug along at about a 3% GDP annual growth rate, corporate profits are at a post-war record, and consumer spending (PCE) is up on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. Yet we just suffered…
This article was previously published on RealMoney at 2:30pm EST on March 6, 2018 It’s been an interesting start to the year. Given how strong 2017 was, coupled with tax reform that would be taking effect in 2018 (and reducing both corporate and individual tax rates for the coming year) it felt smart to anticipate some selling in January. Waiting…
This article was also published on RealMoney at 3:00pm EDT on May 10th, 2017 We last posted here in February on the topic of euphoria, or at the very least excessive complacency. The S&P 500 was about 2,330 and the Dow about 20,500 at the time. Both indices are about 2.5% higher today, and the headlines du jour concern the record-low readings we are seeing…
This article was also published on RealMoney at 11:00am EDT on Feb 13, 2017 We often associate euphoria with excitement, jubilation, and excessive risk taking. People slapping each other on the back in public, complimenting one another and themselves for their genius when discussing recent stock trades. Vows to never allow a repeat of the torture and mental anguish suffered last time around.…
This article was originally published on RealMoney at 9:00am EDT on Nov 30th, 2016 There is a scene in the cult classic 2002 movie ‘Roger Dodger,’ in which Uncle Roger (played by Campbell Scott) describes his job as an advertising executive to his nephew Nick (played by Jesse Eisenberg). Paraphrasing a bit, Roger tells Nick that the first step in a successful advertising…
This article was originally published on RealMoney at 9:00am EDT on Aug 16th, 2016 “Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.” – Haruki Murakami Six months ago the world was ending (for the umpteenth time since it ended in 2008-09). The world is always ending, right up until it doesn’t end. Consider that not even 2008-09 ended…
This article was originally published on RealMoney Pro at 12:00pm EDT on May 16th, 2016 What a difference three months can make. In our post on February 16—three months ago today—optimism was in short supply on both Wall & Main Street. The story on a daily basis was oil, which had fallen below $30 per barrel, putting at risk the finances of just…
This article was originally published on RealMoney at 7:30am EDT on March 2nd, 2016 On February 16 we published an article outlining the reasons for optimism, despite record pessimism about the economy and stock market. This article is a follow up on that piece, in a simple point-by-point format, specifically in regard to the items we discussed two weeks ago. 1. Economic Data –…
This article was originally published on RealMoney Pro at 10:00am EDT on Feb 16th, 2016 I fully believe we are in the midst of a correction and not something worse (a recession/crash/depression/collapse). Apologies in advance; this is a long one. 1. Economic data do not support the recession story. There are a lot of headlines suggesting we (both the US and the rest…
